The Electoral Consequences of Labor Immigration – Analysing the Effect of Immigrant Skill on the Vote for a Populist Radical Right Party

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that individual attitudes towards immigration vary over immigrant skill and that native citizens are generally more open towards highly-skilled migrants compared to lower-skilled migrants. Assuming that these attitudinal differences and supposed micro-foundations have consequences for observed political outcomes, this paper draws on previous findings and analyses whether they translate into actual voting behaviour. Accordingly, the impact of immigrants’ presence on native citizens’ opposition to immigration leading to the vote for anti-immigration and populist radical right parties, varies contingently upon the skill levels of immigrants. Using district-level data from 400 districts in Germany (NUTS-3 level) for the 2017 and 2021 federal elections, this paper shows that the share of foreigners with no and with lower levels of professional qualification is positively related to Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) vote shares, while the share of foreigners with an academic qualification has no effect on AfD vote share. Testing whether the effect is moderated by natives’ own labour market position and increased labour competition due to immigration provides limited support for the so-called Labor Market Competition Hypothesis.